REVISITING THE PROJECT MANAGEMENT DIMENSIONS AT THE DAWN OF A CENTURY: CASE OF PANAMA CANAL AND PALM DIERA ISLAND MEGA PROJECTS.
Abstract - The purpose of this study is to investigate project management dimensions while constructing the Panama Canal by French from 1879 to 1893 and then by American from 1902 to 1914. The paper also compares project management dimensions with Palm Diera Island, where the works were suspended due to the world economic recession in 2008. The paper attempts to throw a light on the common issues of cross-project management with the time lapse of a century.
ON THE USEFULNESS OF VALUE-AT-RISK
Abstract - Value-at-Risk (VaR) is a measure used in financial risk management that has received widespread criticism from academia, trade press, and popular press. In this talk, I will argue that VaR is a useful tool, if it is used with the right set of assumptions about the nature of knowledge, uncertainty, and risk. I will first develop a prescriptive model of decision making under uncertainty within the mind-time-space frame of a decision maker in a strategic context. I will show decision making considerations are left out in standard treatments of VaR under the umbrella of “good intuition and judgment, or good management,” while these considerations should be an integral part of the method. I argue that standard treatment of assumptions and predictions of VaR lead to misinterpretation of data and unreliable inferences by decision makers, while practitioners use VaR with a different predictive meaning. I provide evidence of these arguments with the practical use of VaR in the JP Morgan the “London Whale” case and Goldman Sachs the “Big Short” case. I will conclude with a general discussion on the use of mathematical models in decision making. This work is very preliminary, therefore all suggestions and contributions are welcome.
A NEWSVENDOR PRICING GAME MODEL WITH RANDOM AND PRICE-SENSITIVE DEMAND.
Abstract - In this talk, we will present a newsvendor pricing game model consisting of J retailers selling distinct (but substitutable) products. We assume that the demand for the product at each retailer j is random and depends on all retailer prices. Using additive and multiplicative forms of demand functions, we demonstrate the quasi-concavity of the retailers’ profits as functions of both shipment quantities and prices. This important result allows us to formulate the optimality conditions of all retailers as a finite-dimensional quasi-variational inequality in which retailers should account for penalties associated with shortage and excess supply.
Small Traditional Retailers in Emerging Markets.
Abstract - We study the small traditional retailers that are located in the neighborhoods of big cities in emerging markets. Although modern retailing has grown in the last two decades in these markets, the number of small retailers is still increasing and serving a substantial part of the daily demand for many basic products, such as bread, milk, and cooking oil. We conduct an empirical study to understand the business environment of these small traditional retailers in emerging markets by collecting data from 333 small retailers, spread over 8 large cities in Morocco. We analyze the data and describe their business environment with a focus on the informal credits they offer to their customers. We find that smaller small retailers that are funded from personal savings and managed by the owner himself offer relatively the most credits. Our study also provides interesting insights about these small retailers that will help FMCG manufacturers that are (planning to be) active in emerging markets. We also discuss a number opportunities to improve the efficiency of the supply chains that serve them.